11-20-2025 Auto Market Report

Used Prices Holding Strong

Retail prices for 0–5-year-old units continue to rise approximately 4% YTD
Wholesale has softened by ~2% creating front-end margin opportunities.
Retail remains sticky even as wholesale corrects—benefiting disciplined buyers.

Dealer Impact: Prepare for customers pushed into older vehicles, higher mileage, or creative financing due to affordability constraints.

Late-Model Supply Extremely Tight

Supply of 0–5-year-old vehicles continues a multi-year decline due to pandemic-era production gaps.
3-year-old supply hits a 10-year low and will fall further through 2027.
Total late-model supply drops from 12.5M peak to ~3.4M by 2027.

Dealer Impact: Persistent shortage of 2–4-year-olds will keep prices elevated and competition high.

Used Buyers Moving Upmarket

In 2019, 53% of used franchise sales were under $20K.
In 2025, only 31% fell under $20K.

Dealer Impact: Prepare for customers pushed into older vehicles, higher mileage, or creative financing due to affordability constraints.

Dealer Performance Remains Healthy

Average Used Price: $29.2K (2025) vs. $28.6K (2024) and $21.9K (2019).
Days to Turn: Improving vs. pre-COVID (46 days vs. 50 in 2019).
Front-End Gross: Stabilizing at $940, down from peak pandemic years but still above historical norms.

Dealer Impact: Improved used prices, faster turns, and stable front-end grosses mean dealers have an opportunity for a profitable used-car market.

Equity Pressure Mounting

Customers from 2021–2022 loan vintages remain in deep negative equity due to falling values and long loan terms.
A typical 2022 used loan on a Ford Explorer stays underwater until late 2025.

Dealer Impact: Expect trade challenges, longer terms, and heavier reliance on appraisals that include equity counseling.

Outlook Through 2027

Prices remain supported by tight supply.
Wholesale softens intermittently but does not collapse.
Negative equity and affordability remain the key consumer friction points.
Dealers who manage aging, acquisition discipline, and trade-in processes will outperform.