12-4-2025 Auto Market Report

Economics (Shutdown Effects)

119,000 jobs were added in September, beating expectations.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November
Avg hourly earnings: +0.2% MoM, +3.8% YoY w/ Real earnings: +0.8% YoY after inflation.
Jobless claims: down 8,000 to 220,000 Sept and week ending November 29, down of 27,000 from the previous week
Yet Q4 Consumer and Dealer sentiment is down signaling a cautious approach to year end.

New Vehicle prices are rising but a pullback of the CAFE standards this week is expected to decrease MSRP between 1,000 and 3,000 in 2026.
Retail prices remain stable for use as the wholesale prices continues to drop suggesting profits.
Dealer auction activity has declined 30% over the past 16 weeks

Service Revenue Index climbed 3.1% w/ ticket Volume Index up 7.8% month over month
These gains suggest improving consumer spending trends and a positive shift in overall service department activity.
Service drive momentum is building. Higher revenue and increased ticket volume point to growing customer engagement and stronger fixed ops performance.

Key Takeaways for Dealership Service Leaders

Consumers have the capacity and confidence to spend.
Steady job growth and rising real wages are supporting service demand.
Used car fundamentals are strengthening.
Rising values and stable retail pricing create profitable conditions—especially for stores with tight time-to-line discipline.
Wholesale prices are down but not necessarily due to demand, more due to the less activity in that market and the more priority by dealers in the private party acquisition space.

My guidance, prioritize service drive and service conquests actives to make up for the 4&5-year-old powertrain vehicle shortages.

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