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All Things Used Cars ++

 

Economy

  • Inflation pressure keeps the Federal Reserve at bay with rate drops possible later in the year
  • Elevated energy costs continue to pressure markets with Iranian deal still in the balance
  • Income growth over the past year has outpaced vehicle price increases
  • Housing weakness continues to pressure household budgets and consumer confidence
  • Mortgage rates are 2 bases points higher but lower than this time last year.
  • Income growth over the past year has outpaced vehicle price increases

Dealer sentiment:

  • Economy: 55% (up from 52% in Q1 2026 and 51% in Q2 2025)
  • Market Conditions: 40% (up from 37% in Q1 2026; unchanged from 40% in Q2 2025)
  • Political Climate: 36% (up from 31% in Q1 2026 and 33% in Q2 2025)
  • Expenses: 33% (down slightly from 34% in Q1 2026; up from 32% in Q2 2025)
  • Interest Rates: 32% (down from 34% in Q1 2026 and significantly down from 42% in Q2 2025)

Auto Market

  • New vehicle affordability tightened as prices, rates, & lower incentives pushed payments higher
  • Wholesale markets continue softening, especially in older vehicle segments
  • Retail pricing has remained firmer preserving margins
  • Compact cars & EVs: strongest YoY price growth.
  • SUVs: softest segment — weaker YoY performance.
  • 8+ year‑old units: strongest demand due to affordability pressures.

Retail demand is softening driven by:

  • Higher monthly payments
  • Post‑tax‑refund demand cooling
  • Consumer selectivity increasing
  • Aging inventory dragging turn

Sourcing Efficiency:

VINCUE Data: 2 core sources (new BI platform) 

    • Auction is the #2 sales & #7 in front and total gross generated.
    • Street Purchase is the #1 performing acquisition source
    • Customer Trade ranks #2 among all acquisition sources.
    • Service Drive is the #4 acquisition source in the ecosystem.

Dealer Takeaways

  • Expect continued soft retail movement in early summer.
  • Older units are driving the strongest demand and price stability.
  • EV retail pricing is firming, not falling — a reversal from 2024–2025.
  • Measuring source performance across inventory turn, sales volume, and gross profit is key for continuing to navigate the post COVID used vehicle supply shortage.

 

Author: John Ellis

Founder & CEO Agile Auto