All Things Used Cars +
Bottom Line
The economy is holding up, but the consumer is getting squeezed.
Growth and jobs are stable. Gas prices and sentiment are not.
The spring selling season is still alive, but momentum is tightening.
Macro Snapshot
- Rates: Holding steady at 3.50–3.75%
- GDP: Positive surprise at ~2.0% growth
- Unemployment Claims: Low at ~189K, labor market stable
Takeaway: The economy is resilient, not accelerating.
The Real Story: Energy
- Gas prices above $4 per gallon
- Up sharply year to date due to geopolitical conflict
Impact: Fuel is acting like a tax on the consumer and redirecting spending away from autos.
Consumer Behavior
- Spending is still strong on paper
- Driven heavily by gasoline, not discretionary goods
- Confidence near cycle lows
Takeaway: Consumers can spend but are choosing not to on big-ticket items.
Auto Market Reality
• Total retail sales +1.7% MoM (strongest on record)
• Auto sales +0.5% MoM
What’s really happening underneath:
• New vehicle SAAR running ~16.1M, down YoY but holding better than expected
• Total unit volume ~1.38M, -5.4% YoY and -1.9% vs March
• March SAAR baseline was 16.3M, showing a slight seasonal softening into April
Used & wholesale dynamics (the real story):
• Wholesale used prices +6.2% YoY, near 3 year highs
• Used inventory sitting around ~40 days supply (tight market)
• Retail used demand still rising with ~2% YoY growth in Q1
Consumer behavior shift:
• New vehicle affordability pressure (avg ~$49K) pushing buyers into used
• Demand being supported by tax refunds + strong equity markets
Forward Takeaway
- This is a resilient but constrained market where precision wins.
- As conditions tighten, Inventory Intelligence becomes the separator.
Not more inventory. Not less inventory. The right inventory. - Dealers leveraging Agile Auto’s data-driven approach to align inventory with real-time demand, market dynamics, and turn expectations will outperform.
Bottom line: In a market where the consumer is hesitating, certainty in what to buy, price, and hold is the competitive advantage.
