Sponsored by Agile Auto

 

 

Economics:

Economy remains resilient: The Fed raised rates 25 bps but because of stronger than expected economy.

• 4.1% unemployment
• 4.4% GDP private sector
• Lowest layoff rates every recorded
• Egg prices are down ~30% YoY; down ~45% vs. 2024 highs
• Milk & dairy are down 5–8% YoY; down ~12% vs. 2024 highs
• Chicken & pork are down 3–6% YoY; down ~10% vs. 2024 highs
• Bread & grains are flat to –2% YoY; down ~5% vs. 2024 highs
• Gasoline is down 40¢ YoY; down 80¢ vs. 2024 highs
• Electricity is down 5% YoY; down 8% vs. 2024 highs
• Natural gas id down 7% YoY; down ~10% vs. 2024 highs
• Rent inflation is up only 3% YoY; down from 7% annual increases in 2024
• Shipping & freight is down 20% YoY; down 30% vs. 2024 highs
• Real wage trend shows positive purchasing power, vs the 2022–2024 squeeze

 

Automotive

• Used demand remains active: MOM retail units were up 3.9%
• Used inventory fell to 2.13 million vehicles, with days’ supply from 46 to 44 days.
• Vehicles under $15,000 have only 29 days’ supply, fallen 25.9% YoY.
• Price, payment and value are becoming more important, making the vehicle profile increasingly important.
• Average used listing price reached $27,239, up 7% YoY
• Used payments are up $30–$40 YoY, and $150 higher than 2019.
• New payments are up $50–$60 YoY, and $225 higher than 2019, the biggest gap in modern retail.

 

Dealer takeaway:

• Affordability pressure, the consumer isn’t gone; they’re constrained.
• Used inventory discipline, used demand is still moving
• Stock the right cars, elevated used prices ($27,239 avg, +7% YoY) mean shoppers are more selective
• Lean into value segments, the strongest momentum is in affordable, practical, budget‑aligned inventory.
• Adapt to softer traffic, adjust inventory mix, tighten acquisition strategy, and stay disciplined on pricing and outperforming.