AGILE AUTO MARKET UPDATE

September 17, 2026

 

 

ECONOMY

The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, but affordability remains one of the biggest challenges facing the automotive consumer.

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points this week to 3.75% to 4.00%. Importantly, the Fed continues to describe economic activity as expanding at a solid pace.

The Fed also increased its median projection for 2026 real GDP growth to 2.3%, while projecting unemployment at approximately 4.1%.

Inflation remains the balancing act. August headline CPI was 3.4% year over year, keeping pressure on the Fed to manage inflation even as economic growth remains healthy.

The takeaway is important: Higher rates do not necessarily mean a weak economy.

The economy continues to expand, but consumers are dealing with the collision of elevated vehicle prices, borrowing costs, insurance, housing and other household expenses.

That tension is showing up clearly inside dealerships.

Cox Automotive’s Q3 Dealer Sentiment Index, based on responses from 929 U.S. dealers, declined to 41, compared with a long term Q3 average of 48.

Future market expectations fell to 46, while customer traffic declined to 34.

Yet there was an important bright spot: Dealer profit sentiment actually improved during the quarter.

Dealers ranked the economy as their biggest concern:

54% Economy | 42% Market Conditions | 34% Interest Rates | 33% Expenses

The data suggests a market that is adjusting rather than retreating.

Consumers are still participating, but they are becoming increasingly selective about payment, price and overall value.

 

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AUTOMOTIVE

The used vehicle market provides some of the clearest evidence of this shift.

Retail used vehicle sales increased 3.9% from July in August, reaching an estimated 1.50 million vehicles.

At the same time, used inventory declined 1.1% month over month to approximately 2.13 million vehicles.

As sales increased and inventory declined, used vehicle days supply tightened from 46 to just 44 days.

And prices are moving in the opposite direction consumers would prefer.

The average used vehicle listing price reached $27,239 in August, up 7% from a year ago and the highest monthly average since December 2022.

AFFORDABILITY IS WHERE THE REAL STORY IS

Used vehicles priced below $15,000 have only 29 days of supply, compared with 44 days for the overall used market.

Even more significant: Supply below $15,000 has fallen 25.9% year over year.

These vehicles now represent only 15.1% of total used inventory, down from 20.6% one year ago.

That is a significant shift in the inventory mix precisely when consumers are becoming more payment conscious.

Cox’s dealer survey reinforces the same point. Dealers consistently reported stronger demand for lower priced vehicles while describing difficulty finding enough quality affordable inventory.

New vehicle sales sentiment weakened during Q3, while used vehicle sales sentiment changed comparatively little. Used vehicles’ relative value compared with new vehicles continues to support demand.

Credit availability also improved in August, giving consumers somewhat better access to financing even as borrowing costs remain elevated.

Ford, Chevrolet, Toyota, Honda and Nissan remained the five top selling used brands and collectively accounted for roughly half of retail used vehicle sales.

Meanwhile, CPO sales increased 2.3% from July, reaching approximately 227,432 units.

The overall picture is becoming increasingly clear: The consumer still wants to buy. The challenge is matching that consumer with a vehicle and payment they can afford.

 

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DEALER TAKEAWAYS

This market requires a different inventory strategy.

When used vehicle prices are 7% higher year over year, affordable inventory is down nearly 26%, and vehicles below $15,000 carry only 29 days supply, dealers have considerably less room for inventory mistakes.

Having inventory is not enough.

Having the right inventory is becoming the competitive advantage.

The question for your buying team should no longer simply be:

“Can we buy this vehicle?”

The better question is:

“Should we buy this specific vehicle for this specific store, and what can we afford to pay for it?”

Dealers should know in real time:

What percentage of our sales and inventory are Core vs. Non Core?

Which vehicles are producing the strongest combination of turn, gross and demand?

Which price points, trims, mileage ranges and configurations are actually resonating with consumers in our store and local market?

Which vehicles should we avoid regardless of how attractive the acquisition opportunity looks?

Do our buyers have a specific Buy List showing them exactly what they should be sourcing today?

And for dealer groups: Is the wrong vehicle sitting at one rooftop while another store in the group has customers for it?

With affordable inventory becoming increasingly scarce, the dealers that can identify, acquire, price and position the right vehicles faster should be better positioned to protect both volume and profitability.

 

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AGILE AUTO INSIGHT

Inventory intelligence matters more when inventory mistakes become more expensive.

Agile Auto analyzes actual store and local market performance to identify the vehicles that are Core and Non Core for each individual dealership.

We go beyond simply looking at year, make, model and trim.

Agile analyzes vehicle profitability, sales velocity, market performance, seasonality, depreciation and historical store performance to understand what actually works for that specific rooftop.

That intelligence becomes the dealership’s Preferred Vehicle Buy List, identifying the vehicles buyers should actively pursue.

Then Agile closes the loop.

Instead of giving buyers another report and asking them to go search multiple marketplaces, Agile allows them to move directly from intelligence to sourcing, finding recommended vehicles through integrated sourcing partners from one platform.

During appraisal, the Agile Vehicle Analyst provides another layer of intelligence, helping determine whether a vehicle fits the store and what the dealership can responsibly pay for it.

For dealer groups, Agile adds another advantage:

Before wholesaling or buying another vehicle, determine whether that inventory should be transferred to another rooftop where the data indicates it has a better opportunity to sell and produce profit.

The objective isn’t simply to buy more cars.

It is to buy more of the RIGHT cars, for the RIGHT store, at the RIGHT price.

Today’s consumer hasn’t disappeared.

They have become more selective.

And with only 29 days of supply below $15,000, affordable inventory declining nearly 26% year over year, and average used listing prices up 7%, dealers cannot afford to rely solely on instinct or yesterday’s inventory strategy.

Know what your customers want.
Know what your store needs.
Know what you can afford to pay.
Know where to source it.

Then execute faster.

That is how intelligence turns today’s affordability challenge into tomorrow’s inventory opportunity.